Joe Biden will most likely eke out a close win. But there are strong signs that support for Donald Trump has grown and that Trumpism isn’t going anywhere.
The hope coming into election night 2o20 was that we would know who the winner was by bedtime. That Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who was a heavy favorite, would win by such an overwhelming amount that the States where early mail-in voting would be counted later in the week wouldn’t matter.
That did not happen. It is Wednesday, November 4th, and we still don’t have a winner. And we might not have a winner for days or even weeks.
The race is still undecided, with nine states still counting ballots and battlegrounds states Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia still too close to call. Joe Biden currently has 224 electrical college votes to incumbent Donald Trump’s 213. The race to 27o electoral college votes depends on who could win the majority of those states: if Biden wins Wisconsin and Michigan, the race is over.
Green Bay and Kenosha results are in. Biden is now up in Wisconsin by roughly 20,600 votes. That number could wobble a bit, but there's no realistic path for Trump to pull ahead.
Biden has won more votes any prez candidate in WI history.
Folks: Joe Biden just won Wisconsin. https://t.co/xtg0hiSlW4
— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) November 4, 2020
Michigan now tied and there's every reason to think the remaining votes will be pretty blue. https://t.co/yYGNcrd0AZ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
If Biden strikes out in the midwest but wins Georgia and Arizona (which has already been called by Fox News for Biden) then we have a Democratic president. Right now, reports have Biden doing well in most of those states. But nothing is off the table. And, frankly, there is a good chance that this will turn into a 2000-like supreme court battle. (And we don’t need to tell you what the makeup of the supreme court is.)
Both candidates gave a speech on election night. Biden spoke very briefly from the Chase Center in Wilmington, Delaware. He talked confidently but seemed a bit wounded by how things were going.
“We knew this was going to go long. We feel good about where we are. We really do,” Biden said as cars were beeping in support. “I’m here to tell you tonight we believe we’re on track to win this election. I’m optimistic about this outcome.”
Donald Trump spoke a couple of hours later, speaking around 2 AM EST. His speech was dark and divisive. In an attempt to add doubt about the process, Trump falsely claimed victory and, in an attempt to engage his base, spoke about a supreme court fight coming in the future.
“Frankly, we did win this election. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at four in the morning and add them to the list.”
There is no way to sugar coat it: this was a terrible night for democrats and scary prospects for the future of the United States. Donald Trump is racist, incompetent, and a criminal. He’s a proven tax cheat, paying $750 in taxes in one year, according to the New York Times. He’s been accused of sexual assault dozens of times and has disgraced the executive office in more ways than can be counted. He has been a terrible president and terrible for this country, dividing us more and causing large portions of the country to have doubt in institutions like the media and government agencies. He publicly downplayed COVID-19 and butchered the handling of the pandemic, leading to more than 200,000 deaths. And has showcased more authoritarian instincts than any other United States president in recent memory. And even with all of this, Trumpism isn’t going anywhere.
Biden will ultimately win the popular vote — in probably similar margins to what Hillary Clinton won it in 2016 — and get more than 70 million votes. But Trump support in this country is massive and has only grown. Trump already has more than 68 million votes — dwarfing his 63 million count in 2016. This election was not a repudiation against Trump, like democrats wanted it to be. And Republicans should feel emboldened. They will probably hold on to the Senate — making the passing of any big legislation nearly impossible — and they will win crucial House swing races that democrats took in 2018.
But, more importantly, it shows that there big bet on Trump will have paid off. And him and his style of poltic aren’t going anywhere.